我国开放式基金的业绩持续性及其影响因素

On the Performance Persistence of the Mutual Funds and the Influence Factors

针对国内开放式基金的特点,本文运用参数法选取我国成立时间较早的40只开放式基金作为研究样本进行业绩持续性检验,并在此基础上采用逐步回归法确定影响开放式基金业绩持续性的显著因素。采用参数法的检验结果表明,样本基金的业绩持续期位于牛市中后期且持续时间不长,表明其业绩的持续性与我国股指保持强势的时间长短密切相关;以参数法所确定的21期业绩持续期为研究期间,通过逐步回归发现,除股指波动这一影响因素外,基金的股票交易周转率、成长型投资风格、持股集中度是影响国内开放式基金业绩持续性的显著因素。

By using parameter testing method, the paper refers to the latest research results at home and abroad on the domestic mutual fund industry characteristics and selects 40 sample funds of earliest establishment, which make empirical test on the performance persistence of the mutual funds. By using parameter testing method, there exist performance persistence＇s evaluation period of sample funds that is not long in the medium-late-term bull mar- ket, which shows performance that perform well is closely related to the period that stock index keep the strength. Excluding the impact of fluctuations in the stock price factors, During the 21 performance persistence＇s period that determined by the parameter testing method, the paper with stepwise regression analysis founds stock turnover rate of mutual funds, growth investment style of fund investment style classification and single fund＇s concentration of stock holdings during evaluation period are significant factors to performance persistence of domestic mutual funds.