基于系统动力学的井喷事故仿真研究

Study on Simulation of Blowout Accidents Based on System Dynamics

为动态预测井喷事故发展过程,在分析导致井喷事故主要因素的基础上,结合系统动力学的相关原理,构建井喷事故系统仿真流图,并运用系统动力学仿真软件Vensim对井喷事故的整体流程进行仿真,实现了对油气井安全水平的动态监测和预警。结果表明:井喷事故的发生是由人为因素、管理因素、环境因素、设备因素和法律法规因素四大子系统的交叉耦合作用而导致整个油气井系统的安全水平低于井喷事故的安全临界点所造成的。

In order to forecast the development process of blowout accident dynamically, a system simulation flow chart for blowout accident was built combined with the relevant principles of System Dynamic and based on the analysis of blowout accident main influential factors. The System Dynamic simulation software Vensim was used to simulate the overall process of blowout accident. Monitoring and early warning of oil and gas wells dynamically were achieved. The research results indicate that the blowout accident is caused by the cross-coupling functions of human factors, management factors, environmental factors, equipment factors, and laws and regulations factors.