1991年以来长三角快速城市化地区生态经济系统协调度评价及其空间演化模式

Evaluation on the Coordination of Ecological and Economic Systems and Associated Spatial Evolution Patterns in the Rapid Urbanized Yangtze Delta Region since 1991

以长江三角洲经济区1991、2001、2008年的Landsat TM影像解译数据为基础,以长三角90个县(市、市区)为基本研究单元,构建空间数据转换模型、ESV模型、EEH模型,借助ArcGIS 9.3平台对海量的栅格和矢量数据进行空间分析,依据ESV指数和EEH指数揭示长三角经济发展与生态环境系统的相关关系和演变特征,并进行功能分区和模式提炼。研究表明:①1991年以来长三角地区土地利用类型大幅转换,城镇面积增长最大,来源主要是水田、旱地、草地、园地和其他用地;②ESV模型研究发现,1991-2001时段长三角生态系统呈现恶化趋势,2001-2008时段恶化幅度有所减缓,同时证明水域、水田变为城镇和旱地的开发行为对生态系统的稳定性具有极大的伤害;③1991年来GDP空间格局为中、南部高北部低,其中1991-2001时段中部增长率明显高于北部,2001-2008时段中部增长率明显高于南北;④依据EEH指数将长三角分为12类区域,EEH空间特征为生态冲突区居中心区位,生态协调区居边缘区位,并且按EEH由低到高呈现出明显的核心—边缘空间结构;1991-2001时段长三角生态—经济关系已经出现了集中型初步恶化趋势,2001-2008时段则由集中型初步恶化趋势向分散型恶化与协调并存状态;⑤通过空间数据转换模型将长三角分为5种生态经济演变类型分区:初始恶化区、初始协调区、持续恶化区、协调降低区、协调升级区;⑥总结出长三角EEH的空间演变模式:梯度模式与核心边缘模式共存,其中一级梯度模式为北中南三大横向梯度带,二级梯度模式为长三角南北两翼的东中西三大纵向梯度带;核心边缘模式概括为7大组团:即苏锡常沪组团、南京组团、绍甬组团、苏北组团、泰州组团、杭州组团、南通组团。不同的模式对应着不同的生态经济系统演变方式,反映出长三角快速城市化地区内部存在着较大程度的生态经济关系空间分化趋势。

Based on the Landsat TM remote sensed imageries in the periods of 1991,2001 and 2008 Yangtze Delta Economic Region,and taking 90 counties in this region as basic units,this paper builds spatial data transformation models,i.e.,the ESV and the EEH models. Spatial analysis of massive vector and raster data were done within the environment of ArcGIS 9.3.The ESV index and the EEH index reveal the relationship between economic development and eco-environment system of the Yangtze River Delta and its evolution. Furthermore,the function regionalization and the model modification were developed.The results are shown as follows.（1）Since 1991,the conversion of land-use type has been significant,and the city and town land has converted mainly from the paddy field,dry land, grass land,garden plot and other lands.（2）The ESV model shows that the eco-system tends to be degraded in the 9101 period of time,while in the 0801 period,the degradation trends are less significant.At the same time,it proves that the development pattern of the conversion of water body and paddy field to the city,town and dry land deteriorated the eco-system severely.（3）Since 1991,GDP in the central and southern parts is lower than that in the northern,and GDP growth rate in the central part for the 9101 period is higher than that in the northern,while in the 0108 period,it is higher than those in the central and southern parts.（4）According to EEH index,the paper divides Yangtze Delta Economic Region into 12 zones.The spatial characteristics of the EEH are：ecological conflict zone and ecological coordination zone are located in the center and fringe areas respectively,presenting a ＂core-fringe＂structure in the＂low to high＂order,and in 9101 period eco-economic relationship tends to be concentrated on initial degradation,while in 0108,it converses to dispersed degradation and coordination.（5）Using the model of spatial data transformation, five types of eco-economic evolution are identified,namely,initial degradation zone,initial coordination zone,continuous degradation zone,reduced coordination zone and increased coordination zone.（6）Finally,the paper summarizes the spatial evolution patterns of the Yangtze Delta Region：the coexistence of the gradient mode and the core-fringe mode.The former consists of three horizontal belts in the northern,central and southern parts as the first grade gradient mode and of three N-S belts along the east,middle and west for the second grade gradient mode.The latter consists of seven groups,which are Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou group,Nanjing group,Shaoxing-Ningbo group,northern Jiangsu group,Taizhou group, Hangzhou group and Nantong group.Different modes correspond to different evolution patterns of the eco-economic system,which reflects a spatial differentiation trend of eco-economic relationship at a high level.