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中国制造业产能过剩的测度、波动及成因研究 被引量:538

Research on Measurement,Volatility and Causes of Excess Production Capacity of Chinese Manufacturing Industries
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摘要 本文在微观经济学生产、成本、均衡理论基础上,借鉴Berndt&Morrison(1981)提出的成本函数法,利用面板模型的广义矩估计方法(GMM)分别测度了我国重工业和轻工业28个行业1999—2008年的产能利用水平,据此得出七大产能过剩行业,进而分析了制造业行业发展的波动特征;然后建立变参数面板模型,针对七个产能过剩行业,利用实证分析证明了固定资产投资是产能过剩的直接原因,并针对宏观调控政策对抑制固定资产投资收效甚微这一现象,阐述了我国产能过剩的深层次原因。 Based on production, cost and equilibrium theory in microeconomics, first, this paper makes use of cost function method proposed by Berndt & Morrison( 1981 ) and the Generalized Method of Moments of Panel model to measure the capacity utilization rate of twenty-eight heavy industries and light industries of China from 1999 to 2008 respectively, according to which we get seven industries with excess production capacity and then analyze the features of volatility on manufacturing industry development; and then establishes a varying parameter panel model, which makes use of empirical analysis to prove that the investment in fixed assets is the direct cause of the excess production capacity for the seven industries with excess production capacity. In response to the phenomenon of the macro-control policies have little effect on curbing investment in fixed assets, we elaborate the underlying causes of excess production capacity.
出处 《经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第12期18-31,共14页 Economic Research Journal
基金 国家社会科学基金重大项目(项目号:09&ZD026 10zd&010)的阶段性成果
关键词 产能过剩 成本函数法 波动特征 固定资产投资 面板数据模型 Excess Production Capacity Cost Function Method Features of Volatility Fixed Assets Investments Panel Data Model
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