我国存款准备金率上调空间的统计评估

Statistical Evaluation on Increases Extent of China's Deposit Reserve Rate

存款准备金率是金融机构为保证客户提取存款和资金清算需要而存放在中央银行的存款占其存款总额的比例。作为一种货币政策工具,存款准备金率的变动对经济系统平稳运行有着显著影响,而近年来我国存款准备金率的频繁调整引起了国内外的高度重视。文章以此为基础,构建了符合存款准备金率变动实际的统计模型,并对2011下半年大型金融机构存款准备金率的变动趋势进行统计预测,保守估计认为存款准备金率至多出现三次调整机会,时间分别为2011年9月、11月和12月,上调空间预计达到23%。

Deposit reserve rate refers to a proportion that deposits accounted for it＇s total, this deposits need to deposit in the central bank to ensure customer deposits and clearing of funds by financial institutions. As a tool of monetary policy, the deposit reserve rate＇s adjustment has a significant influence on economic system running smoothly, but in recent years our country frequently adjust the deposit reserve rate attracted high attention both at home and abroad. Base on this, the article constructs a statistical model which in line with the actual of deposit reserve rate changes, and then predicts the deposit reserve rate of large financial institutions in second half of 2011. A conservative estimate shows that the deposit reserve rate have adjustment for chance up to three times respectively in September, November and December in 2011, and the increase extent is expected to reach 23%.