基于投入产出法的中国出口产品隐含碳测算

Carbon Embodiment in China's Exporting:Based on Input-output Analysis

使用投入产出法,利用1999-2008年中国海关货物出口商品分类数据,研究和测算了中国出口商品中的隐含碳。研究结果显示,中国是隐含碳的出口大国,出口贸易是中国CO2排放量逐年增长的重要原因。1999-2008年,我国出口产品中的隐含碳由1999年的3.8亿t上升至2008年的11.9亿t,在此期间,中国CO2年排放量的12%-24%是因生产满足国际市场消费的产品而产生的。中国出口产品中的隐含碳主要集中在5大类行业,分别为:纺织业及服装鞋帽制造业、化学医药制造业、黑色及有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、通用及专用机械设备、电气机械及器材制造业。这5大类行业的出口产品中的隐含碳在中国出口产品的隐含碳总量中占到80%左右。中国出口产品隐含碳的主要流向是美国、欧盟和日本。在实证研究结果的基础上,本文认为国际社会应从生产者负责制和消费者负责制相结合的角度界定各国的碳排放责任和减排目标;同时建议我国应提高生产技术,降低产品的能源消耗强度,并限制能源密集型产业产品的出口。

Using input-output analysis and commodity exporting data of China during 1999-2008,this paper conducts an empirical study and caculates carbon embodiments in China＇s exporting goods.The results show that China has been exporting a large amount of carbon embodiments,and its increase of CO2 emissions has a close relationship with the increase of its export.With the boom of export,carbon embodiments in China＇s exporting goods have raisen from 380 million in 1999 to 1190 tons in 2008,and among the annual CO2 emissions of China from 1999 to 2008,about 12%-24% were caused by the demands of other countries.Carbon embodiment of China＇s export was mainly from five industrial sectors,which was responsible for 80% of carbon embodiment of China＇s export.Carbon embodiment of China＇s export mainly went to the United States,EU and Japan.Based on the results,this paper points out that the international society should consider both principle of producer responsibility and consumer responsibility in identifying emission resposibilities and emission reduction targets of each country,and Chinese government should make great efforts in improving production technology,reducing the energy consumption intensity emboddied in its production,and restricting the exporting of energy-intensive products.