城市危机管理系统鲁棒性评价研究——以上海市危机管理系统为例

Study on Robustness Assessment of Urban Crisis Management System: with Shanghai Crisis Management System as an Example

为提高城市危机管理系统的鲁棒性,探究影响系统鲁棒性的主要因素,建立城市危机管理系统的鲁棒性评价体系。采用因子分析中的主成分分析法,分析评价上海市2004—2009年危机管理系统鲁棒性评价指标的数据,并根据数据分析结果找出影响城市危机管理系统鲁棒性的主成分和因子。结果表明,上海危机管理系统的鲁棒性呈现日趋增强的趋势,企业亏损程度、犯罪率、离婚率、对外界公共卫生事件的防御程度、自然灾害因素对上海危机管理系统的影响较大。提高企业盈利能力、降低犯罪率和离婚率、提高公共卫生防御能力、完善自然灾害预防措施有助于增强城市危机管理系统的鲁棒性。

In order to improve the robustness of urban crisis management system,the major factors that affect system robustness are explored.Firstly,this paper puts forward the robustness evaluation system of urban crisis management system.Then the robustness of Shanghai crisis management system from 2004 to 2009 is evaluated by PCA method,and the major components and factors that affect the robustness of Shanghai＇s crisis management system are identified.The results show that the robustness of Shanghai＇s crisis management system takes on a gradual enhancement trend.Loss of business,crime and divorce rate,defense capabilities of public health and natural disasters have a bigger influence on crisis management system.Improving profitability,reducing crime and divorce rates,improving defense capabilities of public health,and perfecting natural disaster prevention measures will contribute to the robustness improvement of urban crisis management system.