基于空间信息扩散法的环境风险评估模型

An Environmental Risk Evaluation Model Using Space Information Diffusion

环境和人类的生存和发展息息相关,随着全球工业化进程进一步的推进,自然环境在人类的盲目生产活动中经常遭到毁灭性的破坏,同时被破坏的环境反过来又会影响人类正常的生产活动。因此,如何有效地检测和控制由人类生产活动引起的环境风险显得尤为重要。本文通过研究信息扩散理论在环境风险评价领域的应用成果,在改进和优化现有的研究成果前提下,同时融入了模糊评判等相关评估理论,建立了一种复合的空间信息扩散法的环境风险评价模型。该模型在现有的基础上引进环境影响因子,修正了由普通的信息扩散模型所引起的不准确性。通过该模型,能提高在环境风险扩散预测和控制领域的准确率,为降低和控制风险后果提供有效的参考。最后通过一个示例,应用本模型进行环境风险分析,证明模型的实用性,并且对比普通的扩散模型更具有优越性。本文所研究的成果对重大工程发生事故和危机后的环境风险评估具有借鉴的意义。

Environment is closely related to human survival and development. With the acceleration of global industrialization, however, the natural environment suffers from destruction in the productive activities of human society at the same time. The damaged environment in turn affects the normal production activities of human. Therefore, how to effectively detect and control environmental risk after the production activities caused by human is particularly important. This paper establishes a complex environmental risk evaluation model based on space information diffusion by studying the current applications in this area and combining with the theory of fuzzy evaluation, which improves and optimizes the current research results. The model introduces environmental factors to amend the inaccuracy caused by the general information diffusion model. Through the use of this evaluation model, it can improve the accuracy in the fields of prediction and control of environmental risk diffusion based on information diffusion, and provides a basis to reduce and control the risk aftereffect. Finally, a case study is presented as the application of the model, which makes an environmental risk analysis and proves the practicality of the model. It is proved that this model has more general superiority by comparing with the general diffusion model. The results of this study are useful to make an environmental risk assessment for those major projects which have induced accidents and crises.