中国交通基础设施促进了区域经济增长吗——兼论交通基础设施的空间溢出效应

Has Transport Infrastructure Promoted Regional Economic Growth?With an Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure

在综合考虑多维要素对中国区域经济增长的协同作用的基础上,构建交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出模型,利用1993—2009年的中国省级面板数据和空间计量经济学的研究方法,实证分析得出以下主要结论。(1)中国交通基础设施对区域经济增长的产出弹性值合计约0.05—0.07,表明其对中国区域经济增长具有重要的作用。(2)中国交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应非常显著,若不考虑空间溢出效应,会高估交通基础设施对区域经济增长的作用。(3)外地交通基础设施对本地经济增长表现为以正的空间溢出效应为主,但是也有空间负溢出的证据。(4)在影响区域经济增长的多维要素中,劳动力和其他公共部门的资本存量对中国区域经济增长的弹性仍然较大,新经济增长因素与新经济地理因素的作用也不容忽视。

Taking full account of the synergistic effects of multiple factors on regional economic growth in China,this paper constructs a model of the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on regional economic growth.Using provincial panel data from 1993to 2009and employing spatial econometric techniques,our empirical analysis comes to the following conclusions:(1)The total output elasticity of transport infrastructure for regional economic growth varies between 0.05and 0.07,indicating its important role in regional economic growth in China.(2)Transport infrastructure has very clear spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth;its role in regional economic growth will be overestimated if these are neglected.(3)Transport infrastructure in other regions has mainly positive spillover effects on economic growth in a particular region,but there is also evidence of negative spillover effects.(4)Among multiple factors contributing to regional economic growth,labor plus capital input from other parts of the public sector make the greatest contribution to regional economic growth in China,followed by the factors of new economic growth and new economic geography.