基于偏离—份额法的我国农民收入结构演进的省际比较

Inter-provincial comparison of rural residents' income structure and its evolution: Based on shift-share method

在对我国各省区农民收入结构对比分析的基础上,采用静态和动态偏离—份额法对我国1997～2009年各省区农民收入结构及演进态势进行探讨。随着农民收入的增长,农民收入结构发生了剧烈变化,家庭经营收入比重在降低,工资性收入逐步成为大多数省区的重要收入来源。静态偏离—份额分析显示东部省区农民收入结构优势高于西部省区,尤其是工资性收入的结构优势对收入增长贡献较大,而中西部省区的地区竞争优势高于东部省区,尤其是工资性收入增速较快;根据结构和竞争偏离分量的优劣势把各省区分为收入快速增长型、收入增长滞后型、结构优势推动型和竞争优势推动型4种类型。动态偏离-份额分析显示东部省区农民收入的增速在降低,竞争劣势更加突出,部分中西部省区竞争优势逐步增强,但结构优势并不明朗,对收入增长贡献不大。由此认为,加大力度提升农民收入结构层次,尤其是提高工资性收入水平对于协调农民收入增长区域差异具有重要意义。

An inter-provincial comparison of rural residents＇ income structure and its evolution trend from 1997 to 2009 is made by using traditional static shift-share and dynamic shift-share analysis method.Results showed that the structure of income sources of rural residents has changed dramatically along with their income growth.The proportion of household business income is declining,and salary income has gradually become the primary source of income in most of the provinces.Static shift-share analysis result showed that structural shift advantage of the rural residents＇ income in eastern provinces is more obvious than in the western provinces,and the salary income structural shift advantage contributes a lot to the overall income growth;while in western provinces,the differential shift advantage tends to be more obvious and the salary income growth rate in these provinces is higher.According to the structural and differential shift differences,all provinces are categorized into four types： rapid growth type,structural shift-driven type,differential shift-driven type and lagged growth type.Dynamic shift-share analysis result showed that the growth rate of rural residents＇ income in the eastern coastal provinces has slowed down gradually,and its differential shift disadvantage has become more and more obvious.Yet,the differential shift advantage is intensified gradually in some central and western provinces,but the structural shift advantage in these provinces is not clear,as its contribution to the growth is not big.Therefore,making great efforts to improve the level of rural residents＇ income,especially the level of salary income,will be of great significance in decreasing regional disparity of rural residents＇ income growth.