基于蒙特卡洛法的储罐爆炸碎片冲击失效模型研究

Study on Models of Tank Explosion Fragments Impact Failure Based on Monte Carlo Method

为定量研究相邻储罐间爆炸碎片冲击的多米诺效应,基于蒙特卡洛方法建立爆炸碎片冲击失效模型。该模型共包括爆炸能量与碎片初始速度、考虑风速及碎片初始位置的碎片三维抛射轨迹、空气阻力、碎片冲击穿透等4个分步模型。基于上述模型,研究储罐爆炸后碎片的初始状态、抛射轨迹以及对相邻储罐的冲击效应。在数值模拟结果的基础上,用储罐最高允许工作压力代替泄放装置的泄压压力来计算爆炸压力,绘制碎片质量及初始速度的直方图,定量分析储罐间距对击中概率的影响。结果表明,热辐射、超压和碎片冲击3种能量作用方式均可能导致储罐间火灾爆炸事故多米诺现象发生,但爆炸碎片冲击导致相邻罐失效的概率较低。

In order to study the domino effect of the explosion fragments impact on adjacent tanks quantitatively,impact failure models of tank explosion fragments were built based on Monte Carlo method,including an energy and initial velocity model,a 3-D model of explosion fragments projectile trajectory by taking into account wind speed and initial position of fragments,an air resistance model,and a target tank failure model.On this basis,the initial states,flight paths,and breakdown effect of explosion fragments were studied.Based on the numerical simulation results,explosion pressure was calculated by using maximum allowable working pressure of the storage tank to replace the relief pressure,the mass and initial speed distribution histograms of the fragments were drew,the effect of tank spacing on the hit probabilities was analyzed quantitatively.The results show that due to thermal radiation,overpressure,and fragments impact may result in the domino effect of tank fire and explosion accident.But adjacent tank failure probability is relatively low if only considering the impact of the explosion fragments.