摘要
钻孔瓦斯流量是影响矿井瓦斯抽放效果的一个重要因素,为准确预测钻孔瓦斯流量,优化矿井瓦斯抽放工艺,将灰色系统理论与马尔科夫链预测相结合,充分利用两者的优点,通过对瓦斯流量原始数据处理,瓦斯流量状态划分,构建马尔科夫转移概率矩阵及Matlab分析软件进行计算的方法,建立灰色马尔科夫预测模型。结合现场工程实例,将该预测模型和GM(1,1)预测模型进行比较分析,结果表明,利用灰色马尔科夫模型预测钻孔瓦斯流量,能够消除GM(1,1)模型本身固有偏差,预测值平均相对误差为2.16%,最大相对误差仅为5.40%,均优于GM(1,1)模型。
Gas flow-rate from borehole is an important factor influencing mine gas drawing-off effectiveness.In order to predict accurately gas flow-rate and to optimize mine gas drawing-off technique,a grey Markov prediction model of gas flow-rate from borehole was built.The model is exemplified with a real case in which the prediction model of grey Markov was compared with GM(1,1) model.The results show that the grey Markov prediction model eliminates the inherent bias of the GM(1,1)model.The average relative error is 2.16% and the maximum relative error is 5.40%,which are all better than that by the GM(1,1)model.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期79-85,共7页
China Safety Science Journal