国内政治与南海问题的制度化——以中越、中菲双边南海政策协调为例

Domestic Politics and the Institutionalization of the South China Sea Issue:Bilateral Policy Coordination in Sino-Vietnamese and Sino-Philippines Relations

本文通过对中越、中菲南海政策协调的分析表明,三方在功能性问题上存在着极强的合作可能性。但功能性问题的特点是容易产生矛盾。在对主权存在不同主张的情形下,由于担心资源开发的收益分配不公平,深化合作的政治基础并不牢固。越南和菲律宾由于人地资源矛盾突出,对海洋资源的渴求显著强于中国,其南海政策极易获得国内的高度支持,这是越南和菲律宾不会在南海争端中让步的原因,也是其面对日益强大的中国仍表现强硬的根本原因。中越在南海问题上的双边制度化程度要高于中菲,其原因在于中越之间存在更紧密、更深入的关系,多个议题制度化的成果及经验外溢到南海领域,使双方高层在战略上容易达成共识,并对两国的国内决策和执行产生强大的约束力。理解越南和菲律宾南海政策的差异,还需要挖掘两国更多的国内政治经济因素。越南、菲律宾政府各自都面临着来自国内利益和相关部门的挑战。可以预计,国内利益多元化将使其南海政策更加难以协调。

Analysis of Sino-Vietnamese and Sino-Philippines policy coor- dination around the South China Sea indicates that the three states demon- strate strong prospects for cooperation on functional issues. The problem with functional issues is that contradictions tend to emerge around them, and as long as different views persist with respect to sovereignty, fears of an in- equitable distribution of benefits over resources result in a deeply instable po- litical foundation for cooperation. The level of bi-lateral institutionalization between China and Vietnam over the South China Sea is higher than that be- tween China and the Philippines, the reason being that China and Vietnam have much closer and deeper relations, and their experience and successes in developing joint institutions around other issues spills over into the issue of the South China Sea. Understanding the difference of the South China Sea policies between Vietnam and the Philippines also requires consideration of the domestic politics and economy of the two countries. The governments of both Vietnam and the Philippines face challenges from domestic interest groups and various administrative authorities. It is expected that continued pluralization of interests in these countries will create greater difficulties for coordinating policy on the South China Sea.