中国的土地财政与房地产价格波动——基于国际比较的实证分析

China's Land Finance and House Price Fluctuation:An International Comparative Analysis

住房商品化以来中国经历了两轮房地产价格加速上涨,而最近这一轮引起了社会的广泛关注。很多人认为地价是推高房价的主要原因。本文构建了土地供应限制下的房地产市场均衡模型。模型表明房地产市场的真实逻辑是房价决定地价,而非地价决定房价。推动房价飞速上涨,致使房价脱离真实供求因素的根本原因不是地价,而是土地财政。土地财政导致地方政府对房地产市场过分依赖,从而有动力利用各种政策支持高房价,这就降低了房地产投机的风险,刺激了房地产市场中的投机需求,推高了房价。通过国际比较分析,我们发现中国的房地产投机明显超过了不依赖土地财政的经济发达国家。这表明房价调控政策必须与财政体制改革相结合才能够从根本上解决中国的房地产投机问题。

China＇ s house price has increased rapidly since the reform of the real estate market,which has attracted wide concerns over the society. In some people＇ s opinion, land price increase is the prime reason for the house price increase. This paper, however, establishes a model to analyze China＇ s real estate market and points out that the true logic should be as follows：house price decides land price, and land price is not the main reason for the housing market bubble. It is the land finance that causes the rapid increase of house price. Land finance reduces speculation risk and stimulates speculation demand in the real estate market, and consequently causes house price bubble. Empirical studies and international comparative analyses provide evidence for this argument.