经济增长是否能自动解决环境问题——倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线是内生机制结果还是外部控制结果

Whether Economic Growth Will Automatically Solve the Environmental Problems?——Inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve is the Result of Endogenous Mechanisms or External Control Results

环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)认为随着经济的增长,环境污染情况呈现先加剧后减轻的趋势。传统的观点认为经济增长能够内生性地自动解决环境问题,把倒U型EKC出现逆转趋势的原因归结为经济增长本身,认为经济增长达到一定程度后环境问题能够得到自动解决。本文使用2001-2010年的数据构造了综合污染指数CPI对环境和经济增长的关系进行实证研究,先使用实际污染物排放量和处理后污染物排放量作为对比,发现在不考虑污染物处理因素的情况下,使用实际排放量得出的结果全部是线性增加的,使用处理后排放量的计量结果显示CPI与人均GDP的关系呈倒U型。然后引入产业结构、居民素质、技术进步、政府行为、外商投资、产业集中度、人口密度七个变量对传统的EKC进行补充解释,找出了哪些是主要影响因素,哪些是次要影响因素,并对东部、中部、西部的区域差异进行实证和解释。结果表明,环境和经济增长的"倒U"型关系不是经济增长内生机制所致,而是诸多外部控制措施作用的结果,环境污染很难随着经济增长而自动减轻,改善环境质量要从经济和社会的方方面面入手,综合调整经济社会发展模式才是根本途径。

The environmental Kuznets curve （EKC） holds that with economic growth, environmental pollution takes on a trend of being intensified first and then decreased. The traditional view that economic growth can be endogenous to automatically solve environmental problems, and the reversed trend in the inverted U type EKC attributes to economic growth itself, believing that when economic growth reaches a certain extent, environmental issues can be resolved automatically. This paper uses the data from 2001 -2010 to construct a comprehensive pollution index, CPI, and conduct an empirical research on environment and economic growth. First, we contrast the real pollutant emissions with pollutant emissions after treatment, and find that, not considering pollutant treatment factors, the results of using emission actual emissions are all in linear increase, while the results of using emissions measurement of emissions after treatment shows that the CPI and GDP of average per capita relationship was an inverse U type. Then we introduce seven variables： industrial structure, quality of residents, technological progress, government behavior, foreign investment, industrial concentration and population density, and the traditional EKC is added so that we find out what are the main factors which are the secondary influencing factors. Differences in eastern, central and western regions are positive and interpreted. The results show that the inverse U type relation between environment and economic growth is not induced by the endogenous mechanism of economic growth, but by the resuh of the action of external control measures; environmental pollution is very difficult to automatically attenuate along with economic growth; the improvement of the quality of the environment should start with every economic and social aspect; the mode of comprehensively adjusting economic and social development is the fundamental approach.