Analysis of the Impact of Off-farm Employment of Agricultural Labor on Grain Production in Shandong Province and Henan Province

劳动力非农就业对粮食生产影响分析——以山东省、河南省为例(英文)

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production. [Method] Impact of off-farm employment of agricultural labor on grain production was investigated based on path analysis by using data from 200 counties and cities in Shandong Province and Henan Province in 2000 and 2008. [Result] Off-farm employment of agricultural labor affects grain production through agricultural land use patterns, off-farm employment of agricultural labor has negative impacts on grain production through multiple cropping index and positive impacts through the proportion of grain planting area. The positive impacts were greater in 2008. [Conclusion] Prerequisite of the positive impacts of off-farm employment on grain production is the substitution of agricultural mechanization development and agricultural technology advancement for agricultural labor. Orderly land circulation and scale land use should be promoted to avoid the lack of agricultural labor due to off-farm employment.

[目的]探讨劳动力非农就业对粮食生产的影响。[方法]对劳动力非农就业对粮食生产的影响方式进行剖析,并采用路径分析方法对山东省和河南省200个县市数据进行检验计算。[结果]劳动力非农就业通过农地利用方式影响粮食生产,与其他因素共同作用于粮食生产的变化;劳动力非农就业通过复种指数变化对粮食生产产生负向影响,通过粮食播种面积比例变化对粮食生产产生正向影响,近期以正向影响为主。[结论]劳动力非农就业对粮食生产正向影响的前提是平原农区机械化发展和粮食生产技术水平提高对劳动力减少替代作用的结果,应促进农地有序流转和规模经营,防止劳动力就业过度非农化带来的农地利用主体缺失。