中国金融发展与收入差距的倒U关系分析

An Analysis on the Inverted U Relationship between Financial Development and Income Inequality in China

国际学术界有一种主流观点认为,金融发展与收入差距之间存在倒U关系,即在金融发展的初期,其对收入差距具有扩大效应,而在金融发展达到一定程度,收入差距就会随之缩小。在这个过程中,收入差距表现为先是扩大,继而缩小的倒U型(或者说n型)走势。本文就中国的金融发展分别与农村、城镇、城乡和全国收入差距之间是否存在倒U关系进行了实证检验,结果表明,中国的金融发展与各项收入差距之间确实存在倒U关系。在目前阶段,金融发展总体上对收入差距仍然具有扩大效应,但这种效应正在迅速衰减。随着金融发展程度的进一步提高,中国的收入差距有望随之缩小。

This paper uses co-integration and ADL models to examine the existence of inverted U relationship between financial development and income inequality in China during 1987 -2009. Existing domestic literature uses one or a few indicators of financial development, which cannot fully reflect the process of financial development in China. This study uses principal component analysis to get a comprehensive financial development index. Empirical research based on the index is more reliable. The authors reached two basic conclusions. Firstly, there are inverted U relationships between financial development and all level income inequality. Secondly, during 1987 -2009, financial development expanded urban-rural Income Gap, enforced income inequality in rural region and the whole country as well, but weakens income inequality in urban region. However, financial development will reduce income inequality at all levels in the future.