摘要
引力方程是国际贸易中常用的基本方程,它用经济总量、距离、边境等基本经济变量预测两国贸易额。近10年来,引力方程作为贸易研究的热点之一,在理论和实证上都取得了较大的研究进展:理论方面,出现了分别以需求结构和供给结构作为微观基础的结构化引力方程;实证方法上,开始关注对数线性化方法、零贸易流等问题。本文梳理和总结了引力模型的最新进展,并运用最新研究结果,用引力方程对中国近年的贸易数据做出准确的估计。
The Gravity Equation is widely used in empirical studies of bilateral or multilateral trades. It predicts bilateral trade flows are dependent on observables such as economic sizes, distance, and adiacency, etc. The simplicity and general fitness to data has made it one of the most successful equations in studies of interna- tional trade and investment, geopolitics and culture, and economic geography. Gravity model has been greatly advanced in both empirical techniques and theoreti- cal foundations. Theoretically, different structural gravity equations are proposed, accounting for supply or demand structures, firm heterogeneity, as well as trade frictions. Empirically, estimating gravity equations calls for careful dealing with log-linearization, zero flow and sample selection problems. In this paper, we review the most recent development of the gravity model. Then we apply those new ap- proaches to study China's foreign trade, using a large panel-data sample.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第10期52-68,138,共18页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
关键词
国际贸易
引力方程
中国贸易
International Trade
Gravity Equation
China's Foreign Trade