权力变迁冲击下的东亚安全新态势

East Asian Security under the Shift in Power

权力转移是导致国际关系不稳定的重要诱因,是影响安全格局调整的主要变量。随着中国崛起,东亚区域内的权力分配出现了明显的权力变迁,但还远未出现权力转移。即便如此,东亚地区安全格局也正在出现深刻的调整和变化。权力变迁究竟将在多大程度上改变和主导未来区域安全架构的演变,这既是一个理论问题,更是一个严峻的政策话题。美国"再平衡战略"的根本目的是为了强化美国单极霸权体制下的东亚安全。美国意图在安全和经济两条战线上把握东亚区域政治发展的主导权,维持区域内国家对美国的战略信心和同盟依赖,牵制中国崛起并力图削弱中国崛起给美国单极霸权所带来的消极地区效应,充分获取中国崛起给美国及其盟友带来的诸多战略红利。面对中国崛起,区域内国家会采取强化军事同盟体系,借重域外因素的影响力或者实施新的区域战略等方式调整相应的安全政策。中国崛起的未来应该是在均势与制度合作的同时发展中重建一个更具包容性的东亚安全新秩序。对于权力变迁所带来的地区安全秩序重组,必须要有深刻的认知以确保战略的正确导向和积极效应,在均势与制度合作的双重进程中重建东亚安全的未来。

The shift in power is an important incentive for the instability of international relations,and a key variable influencing the adjustment of security architecture.With the rise of China,there's an obvious shift in power in East Asia while the power transition is still far away.Nevertheless,the East Asian security architecture is undergoing profound adjustment and transformation.That to which extent the power shift can change or dominate the future security architecture in East Asian is more of policy implications than a theoretical issue.The Rebalancing Strategy of the U.S.aims to strengthen its hegemonic monopolarity in the region by maintaining strategic confidence and reliable alliances,weakening the negative effectiveness of the rise of China,and obtaining sufficient strategic dividends to both the U.S.and its alliances.For the future,to accommodate the rise of China,an inclusive security framework is needed while maintaining the balance of power and institutional cooperation.