中国崛起、东亚格局变迁与东亚秩序的发展方向

China's Rise,the Transformation of East Asian Structure and Directions for the Development of the East Asian Order

文章对中国崛起背景下东亚格局的变迁与东亚秩序的发展方向进行了分析。文章认为,中国的崛起在性质上改变了东亚格局的面貌,在东亚地区形成了经济中心与安全中心相互分离的二元格局,该格局的形成是中国的经济崛起、美国的"接触加遏制"的对华政策以及众多东亚国家在中美之间两面下注的政策相互作用的产物,这一格局反过来进一步加剧了东亚国家两面下注的政策。二元格局的存在,对东亚合作产生了不利影响,导致地区内大国和重要行为体更多地把地区制度作为战略性工具来使用,使地区制度安排成为服务于权力竞争的手段。总体来说,东亚二元格局会在未来一个比较长的时期持续,我们需要在这一前提下,探索东亚秩序的稳定持续与有效运作的问题。从根本上说,东亚秩序的稳定和效率,需要中美探索共处之道的新形式。

This article analyzes the transformation of East Asian structure and the direction of the development of the East Asian order against the background of China's rise.It argues that China's rise fundamentally changes regional structure of East Asia,as two economic and security centers have emerged and become polarized in the region.This state of affairs is a combined product of the dynamics between China's economic rise,the American'congagement'policy towards China,and the majority of East Asian states hedging their policies between the U.S.and China.At the same time,the existence of these two power centers in East Asia has caused East Asian states to further hedge their policies towards the U.S.and China.A dual structure brings with it negative impacts for cooperation in East Asia,and has resulted in the region's great powers and critical actors using regional institutions as instrumental tools,and manipulating regional configurations to serve the ends of power competition.In sum,as a dual structure will continue to exist for the foreseeable future,we need to consider how to effectively maintain the stability of the order.Fundamentally,stability and effectiveness of the East Asian order requires that China and the U.S.identify new modes of engagement.