中国2008年女性乳腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况的估计及预测

Estimates and prediction on incidence, mortality and prevalence of breast cancer in China, 2008

目的估计2008年中国女性乳腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测20年后其发病数和死亡数。方法根据中国36个肿瘤登记点的数据以及全国第三次死因调查（2004--2005年）结果，估计2008年女性乳腺癌发病、死亡和患病情况，并预测2010、2015、2020、2025和2030年发病数和死亡数。结果2008年中国女性乳腺癌新发病例数约16．9万，占所有恶性肿瘤发病例数的14．2％，世界人口标化发病率为21．6／10万，居女性所有恶性肿瘤第2位。2008年女性乳腺癌死亡病例数约4．5万，占所有恶性肿瘤死亡例数的6．1％，世界人口标化死亡率为5．7／10万，居全部恶性肿瘤第6位。2008年中国15岁以上成年人乳腺癌5年患病数约63．0万，占所有恶性肿瘤5年患病数的26．1％，5年患病率为120．8／10万，居女性所有恶性肿瘤首位。中国乳腺癌高发人群为40～70岁年龄组。在未来20年，中国乳腺癌的发病数和死亡数均将呈现上升趋势。结论乳腺癌居中国女性癌症第2位，与首位肺癌基本持平，其发病和死亡情况在未来20年将越来越严重，重点防控人群为40～70岁女性。

Objective To estimate＇the inci＇dence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of breast cancer in China, in 2008. Methods Data from 36 cancer registries and the Third National Death Survey in China （2004-2005） were used to estimate the incidence, mortality and 5-year prevalence of breast cancer in China in 2008. Mathematical models were used to predict the breast cancer incidence and mortality in the next 20 years. Results In 2008, the incidence of breast cancer was 169 452 （14.2%） with the incidence rate of 21.6/100 000, ranking the second among all the cancers. Deaths due to breast cancer was 44 908 （6.1%） with mortality as 5.7/100 000, which ranked the sixth among all the cancers. The 5-year prevalence rate of breast cancer in China was 120.8/ 100 000, taking up the proportion as 26.1%, ranking the first among all the cancers. Breast cancer was seen more frequently among people aged between 40 to 70. Our data on prediction showed that the incidence and mortality of breast cancer in China would gradually increase in the next 20 years. Conclusion Breast cancer was the second cause of incidence rates among all the cancers in China, with both increasing incidence and mortality. Population at most risk for breast cancer were those aged 40 to 70, who deserved special programs for prevention and control.