世界产业结构演进影响因素的南北差异及其对中国服务业发展的启示——基于20个国家1970～2010年面板数据的实证分析

Differences in Factors Affecting Service Industry Development between Developed and Underdeveloped Countries and Its Inspirations to China:An Empirical Assessment based on Panel Data of 20 Countries from 1970 to 2010

本文利用20个国家1970～2010年的数据,构建了一组面板数据计量模型,实证检验了高等教育、城市化率、FDI净流入、国民储蓄率以及贸易开放度等因素对服务业发展的影响,并通过引入贸易和储蓄二项式,测度了发达国家和不发达国家的国民储蓄率和贸易开放度对产业结构演进的影响力临界值的差异。结果表明:高等教育、城市化率、FDI净流入对服务业发展均有显著的正向作用,过度储蓄不利于产业结构的调整,而适度的贸易开放度有助于促进服务业的发展;同时,与发达国家相比,不发达经济体可以容忍一个相对较高的外贸依存度,而储蓄率也将在一个较大的范围内对不发达国家服务业发展起到抑制作用。文章对此进行了分析,并得出了一些有益的启示。

This paper,using both random and fixed effect model,examines some economic variables which affect the development of service industry.Based on the panel data of 20 countries from year 1970 to year 2010,it develops a static panel model to analyze the industrial restructuring effect of tertiary education,urbanization rate,net FDI,gross savings and trade openness on the service industry.It finds that the added value proportion of service industry is increased by the tertiary education,net FDI inflows,urbanization rate.Both gross savings and trade openness have quadratic effect on the development of service industry and the paper tries to find the critical value at which the coefficients change their signs.The evidence shows that oversaving can restrain the development of service industry,while moderate trade openness will promote it.