日本经济周期波动影响因素的交叉谱分析

A Cross Spectrum Analysis of the Determinants of Japan's Business Cycle Fluctuations

日本经济主要存在长度为15.2个季度(3.8年)的短周期波动。交叉谱分析结果表明,日本经济周期的波动与内需和外需的关系都非常密切,但受外需引领和影响的程度更为显著。日本经济呈现出了典型的"外需主导型"发展特征。在当前全球经济复苏乏力的背景下,短期内日本经济走出萧条非常困难。只有通过持续、全面和彻底的结构调整和改革,真正确立"内需主导型"经济发展战略,日本经济才有望走上自律发展的轨道。

This paper shows that there exists a short cycle of 15.2 quarters （3.8 years） in Japan＇s economic fluctuations. The results of cross spectrum analysis indicate that both domestic demand and external demand have close relationship with Japan＇s business cycle fluctuations, while the effect of external demand is more significant. Japan＇s economy has exhibited typical features of external demand dominated model. Under the current background of the sluggish world economy, it＇s difficult for Japanese economy to recover in the short run. An autonomous development depends upon even more thorough structural adjustment and reform so as to establish a strategy of domestic demand dominated development.