政府投资对民间投资挤入与挤出效应的实证研究——基于1980-2010年的中国数据

An Empirical Study on the Crowding-out and Crowding-in Effects of Government Investment upon Private Investment Based on the Data of 1980-2010 Period

本文运用IS-LM模型研究政府投资对民间投资产生挤出效应与挤入效应的影响因素,并采用中国1980年至2010年政府投资、民间投资、收入、税收等数据,建立VAR模型分析政府投资对民间投资的影响。研究表明,中国政府投资规模扩大对民间投资存在部分挤入效应,也存在部分挤出效应,但从总体上看,累积挤出效应并不存在。本文认为,中国民间投资虽然在一定程度上能由扩张性的财政政策来带动,但民间投资不能依赖政府投资刺激,必须形成民间投资持续增长的内生机制。

Using the IS - LM model, this paper first studies the factors that influence the crowding - out and crowding - in effects of government investment upon private investment. And then by employing the data from Chinese government investment, private investment, income and tax from 1980 to 2010, this paper establishes a VAR model to analyze the influence of government investment upon private investment. Studies in this paper have shown that the Chinese government＇s enlarging investment scale has some crowding- in effect upon private investment, but there are also some crowding - out effect. The point is if we take an overall view of the investment system, there can be said no cumulative crowding- out effect. This paper concludes that although the expansionary fiscal policy can drive private investment to some extent, private investment can ＂ t depend on pulling force of the government investment, and private investment should build an endogenous mechanism for sustained growth.