中国各省区碳减排责任分摊——基于零和收益DEA模型的研究

Sharing the Carbon Emission Reduction Responsibility across Chinese Provinces:A Zero Sum Gains DEA Model

研究如何基于国家整体的碳减排目标,进行中国各省区碳减排责任的分摊,以明确区域间"共同但有差别的责任"。从共摊成本分配问题的公平与效率角度出发,对碳减排责任分摊进行了经济学分析。基于分配效率视角,探讨了在分配总量固定的条件下,利用投入导向的零和收益DEA(ZSG-DEA)模型进行碳减排责任分摊的可行性。在实证分析部分,采取非期望产出作为投入法,将碳排放量作为模型的投入,将人口、能源耗费和GDP作为模型产出变量。依照我国2015年碳减排整体目标和各省区经济社会发展特征,进行了投入产出数据的预测。为了与ZSG-DEA模型进行对比,首先建立了碳减排责任分摊的DEABCC模型,计算结果表明:仅有9个省区达到DEA有效,需要对碳排放配额进行再分配。应用ZSG-DEA模型,对我国30个省区的碳减排责任进行了再分配。通过两次迭代计算,得出了达到统一DEA有效边界的分配方案。

In order to achieve carbon emission reduction targets in China,a scheme of sharing carbon emission reduction responsibility between Chinese provinces is needed.According to the ＇common but differentiated＇ rule,the distribution of carbon emission reduction responsibility is analyzed economically as a common cost sharing problem and relates to fairness and efficiency.Here,we paid close attention on the efficiency of distribution.Data envelopment analysis（DEA） models have been widely used to estimate the performance of similar DMUs.Moreover,some alternative models have been proposed in the presence of undesirable outputs such as carbon emissions,the increase of which implies a reduction in performance.But these models are not suitable for the reallocation of carbon emissions because the total sum is constant.It has been proposed that the zero sum gains（ZSG） DEA model is a good choice to solve this sum-constant reallocation problem,and here we applied the ZSG-DEA model to sharing the carbon emission reduction responsibility between provinces.Carbon emission was modeled as the input and population,energy consumption and GDP were considered outputs.In order to contrast with the ZSG-DEA model,BCC ef？ciency scores of 30 Chinese provinces were computed.The results showed that only nine provinces could reach the DEA BCC frontier,and 13 provinces＇ efficiency scores were lower than 0.8.It is necessary to reallocate the carbon emission quotas of provinces so as to make all DMUs efficient.The ZSG-DEA sharing model of carbon emission reduction responsibility has been established,and the responsibilities of 30 Chinese provinces were redistributed in the light of objectives for China in 2015.After twice iterative computations,the adjusted carbon emission quotas of 30 Chinese provinces,which reached the uniform DEA BCC frontier,were obtained.After reallocation,all provinces were 100% ef？cient,but not all of them were Pareto efficient,since the slack values of these provinces were not zero.Our reallocation plan is far from the ultimate one,since it was only based on efficiency analysis,and has not taken fairness into account.According to these results,some western provinces such as Ningxia and Gansu have to reduce large amounts of carbon emissions that not only exceed their ability but are also unfair.