人民币区域化的影响因素研究——基于引力模型的实证分析

An Empirical Study of the Factors Affecting RMB Regionalization: Based on the Gravity Model

在当前人民币国际化遵循周边化———区域化———国际化基本路径下,亚洲必然成为人民币区域化的首选地区,而且已经具备了一定的现实基础;同时人民币区域化在非洲也取得了一定的进展,并拥有广阔的前景。基于货币使用的引力模型,采用亚非国家相关数据对人民币区域化影响因素的实证研究结果表明,人均GDP、债务负担、与中国的双边贸易总额、地理距离等变量是影响人民币区域化的主要因素;引力模型效应对人民币在亚洲的周边化和区域化具有显著的影响;而对人民币在非洲的流通来说,各国债务负担则是更为重要的影响因素,引力模型效应不显著。

As RMB internationalization is now following the path from China＇ s neighbors to the local and other re- gions, Asia is bound to become the first place to face it, where RMB regionalization already has some foundation in reality. RMB regionalization in Mrica also has made some progress. The result of the empirical analysis based on the data from Asi- an and African countries shows that the GDP per capita, debt burden, total bilateral trade between China and other coun- tries and geographical distance are the major factors affecting RMB regionalization . The gravity model effect plays an impor- tant role in the proeess of regionalization in Asian countries . In Mrican countries, the burden of national debt and interest rates are more significant, and the gravity model effeet is insignificant.