我国居民高储蓄率的原因是什么——基于多元回归方法的实证分析

The Reasons for Residents' High Saving Rate in Our Nation:Empirical Analysis on the Basis of Multiple Regression Methods

近年来,我国居民储蓄持续而快速增长,正确分析这一现象的利弊有利于国家的宏观调控。本文详细分析了影响居民储蓄的因素,并通过建立多元回归模型,对我国居民储蓄行为进行了实证研究,得出了国内生产总值和收入水平对我国居民储蓄有较大的影响作用、实际利率与居民储蓄成反向增长、物价的下降会引起居民储蓄的增加、体制性因素对居民储蓄有正面影响等结论。在此基础上,文章进一步提出了合理引导居民储蓄行为的对策建议。

In recent years, residents＇ savings have increased rapidly and continuously. In response to this phenomenon, accurate analysis of its pros and cons is beneficial to national macro - control. In this paper, factors which affect residents＇ savings have been analyzed detailedly and, through building multiple.regression models, empirical analysis of residents＇ savings has been conducted. The findings show that GDP along with income level have great impact on residents＇ savings; real interest rate and commodity prices are negatively correlated with residents＇ savings, and institutional factors have positive effects on residents＇ savings. And therefore, the paper also puts forward to some cotmtermeasures and suggestions for the sake of guiding residents＇ rational savings.