基于组合预测模型的煤炭消耗预测研究

Research on Forecasting of Coal Consumption Based on Combination Forecasting Model

煤炭消耗系统是个复杂的系统,具有上升性和不确定性。本文利用我国近12年的能源统计数据,针对我国煤炭消耗量问题,分别建立了多元回归预测模型和GM(1,1)预测模型。在此基础上,最终建立了一个煤炭消耗组合预测模型,为与煤炭消耗相关的决策者们提供科学且有价值的参考依据。

With the rising and uncertainty, coal consumption system is a complex system. To the coal consumption problem of China, a multiple linear regression forecast model and a GM （1,1） forecast model were established used eleven years energy statistics date of China. On this basis, a combination forecasting model for coal consumption was set up eventually. In a word, it provides some scientific and valuable reference for the managers and decision makers.