农村金融发展对农民消费影响的动态研究

Dynamic Study on the Influence of Rural Financial Development on Famers' Consumption Expenditure

通过构建中国农村金融发展指标体系,将农村金融发展水平作为影响农民消费需求的变量引入到传统消费函数中来,实证分析我国1979～2010年农村金融发展水平与农民消费支出之间的动态关系,结果表明:人均可支配收入、农村金融效率、农村金融密度和农村金融规模都显著影响农民的消费支出。人均可支配收入无论在短期还是长期都是影响农民消费支出最主要的因素。农村金融效率、农村金融密度和农村金融规模对农民消费支出的影响体现为长期的持续效应。农村金融结构对农民消费支出的影响不显著,主要体现为短期效应,长期内几乎没有影响。

By building China＇s rural financial development indicator system,rural finance development is introduced into the traditional consumption function as factors affecting consumption demand of famers;and a dynamic analysis is made of the relationship between rural consumption expenditure and the rural finance development based on the time series data from 1979～2010.The results show that disposable income,rural financial efficiency,rural financial density and rural financial scale significantly affect farmers＇ consumption expenditure.Famers＇ disposable income is the principal factor both in the short term and long term.Rural financial efficiency,rural financial density and rural financial scale impact farmers＇ consumption expenditure by long-term sustained effect.Rural financial structure has little effect on farmers＇ consumption expenditure,it is mainly reflected in short-term effect,but almost no effect on the long term.