基于数值天气预报的风电功率预测建模研究

Research on wind power prediction modeling based on numerical weather prediction

基于数值天气预报的支持向量机风电功率预测方法,利用空间分辨率较高的数值天气预报来提高风电功率预测的准确性;通过优化选取NWP的网格点、物理层面及其之上的物理量对预测模型进行简化,提高预测程序的运行速度。采用辽宁省某风场的历史数据,验证了所设计预测算法的有效性,为数值天气预报用于风电功率建模提供了试验支撑。

A method of taking support vector machine is suggested to predict wind power based on nu- merical weather prediction in this article,and wind power prediction accuracy is improved by using high spatial resolution numerical weather prediction;With optimally selecting of NWP grid points, physical levels and the physical on it, the support vector machine model is simplified, and the program running time is shortened. The analysis of historical data of a wind farm in Liaoning province verifies the validity of the designed prediction method, which provides an experimental support for the modeling of wind power prediction by the application of numerical weather prediction.