能源回弹效应的理论模型与中国经验

Theoretical Model and Experience from China of Energy Rebound Effect

针对既有研究未将能源效率内生化处理的关键缺陷,本文基于"干中学"思想构建了能源回弹效应的理论模型,并利用时变参数状态空间模型测算了我国宏观经济层面的长短期回弹效应,最后结合实际国情和测算结果对我国的节能政策思路进行了探讨。研究表明:在能源效率内生化条件下,CD生产函数对于研究回弹效应具有足够的灵活性和解释力;改革开放前回弹效应总体上表现为逆反效应,而改革开放期间则表现为部分回弹效应,且呈曲折下降趋势;通过提高能效降低能源消费的思路在我国是总体可行的,但潜在节能效果中有相当一部分被经济快速增长所带来的新一轮能源消费所抵消,使得长期回弹效应偏高,我国宏观经济层面尚存在很大的节能空间;单纯依靠改进能效的节能政策只能解决部分问题,还必须引入价格、税收等一系列市场导向型的辅助性政策组合对回弹效应加以限制,以促使能效提高所获得的潜在节能效果最大程度地实现。

Aiming at the limitation of the non-endogenous consideration of energy efficiency in the current researches, this paper develops a theoretical model based on the learning-by-doing theory and carries out an empirical estimation of rebound at China＇s macro-economic level by using the state space model. Moreover, it discusses China＇ s energy policy choice. Results indicate that Cobb-Douglas production function has sufficient flexibility and interpretation for the rebound under the technology-edogenous framework. The backfire effect and partial rebound are present before and after the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy respectively. The long-term rebound is high since some proportion of potential energy conservation is offset by a new round energy consumption resulting from rapid economic growth. The realization of energy- saving goal should not be only deperdent on the improvement of energy efficiency, but also on some market-oriented policy mix including energy pricing and revenue policy to restrict effectively the rebound and maximize the potential energy conservation.