中国汉族中小学生近视现状及增长速度数学模型分析

Prevalence of myopia and mathematical model for the prevalence of myopia increasing with age

目的了解我国汉族中小学生近视发生现状并拟合近视检出率随年龄增长曲线模型,为制定近视防治策略提供依据。方法使用2010年全国学生体质与健康调研资料,分析我国内地7～18岁汉族儿童青少年近视发生现状。采用Logistic回归分析学生近视检出率在城乡、性别间的差异;在Logistic回归分析基础上,分不同组别拟合近视检出率随年龄增长曲线模型,进一步对增长曲线模型求一阶导数获得近视检出率随年龄增长速度模型。结果我国7～18岁汉族学生近视检出率为55.05%,女生(58.7%)高于男生(51.4%),城市学生(62.1%)高于乡村学生(48.0%),差异均有统计学意义(P值均<0.01);近视检出率随年龄增长呈上升趋势,城乡、性别之间近视检出率增长幅度随着学生年龄增长逐渐缩小。城男、城女、乡男、乡女近视检出率随年龄增长3次方曲线方程模型分别为:城男y^1=38.26-10.12x1+1.59x21-0.05x31;城女y^2=9.14-2.23x2+1.06x22-0.04x32;乡男y^3=98.06-24.74x3+2.38x23-0.06x33;乡女y^4=99.23-26.37x4+2.74x24-0.07x34。结论我国中小学生近视检出率增长明显,随年龄呈立方曲线模型增长,青春期前及青春期早期增长速度最快。应在青春期早期以前采取有效防治策略和措施。

Objective To analyze the prevalence of myopia and create the model for the prevalence of myopia increasing with age among primary and secondary school students in China, and to provide the scientific basis for preventing myopia. Methods The national physical fitness and health surveillance data in 2010 was used to analyze the prevalence of myopia among students aged 7-18 years. The difference of the prevalence of myopia in gender and region were analyzed using Logistic regression analysis. On the basis of this, create the mathematical model for the prevalence of myopia increasing with age, and get the model of increasing velocity of the prevalence with age using the first order derivative to the mathematical model above. Results The prevalence of myopia among Han students aged 7-18 years in China was 55.05% , and the higher prevalence was in female （58.7% ） than in male （ 51.4%, P〈0.01 ）. The prevalence of myopia in urban area was 62.1% , which was higher than that in rural area（ 48.0% ,P〈 0.01 ）. The prevalence of myopia increased significantly and the urban-rural and male-female differences has gradually shortened the increasing trend with age. The mathematical model of the prevalence of myopia increasing with age can be presented as the cubic function equations below for urban male, urban female, rural male, and rural female students, respectively. They are y1=38.26-10.12x1＋1.59x1^20.05x1^3 ;y2=9.14-2.23x2＋1.06x2^2-0.04x2^3 ;y3=98.06-24.74x3＋2.38x3^2-0.06x3^3 ;y4=99.23-26.37x4＋2.74x4^2-0.07x4^3. Conclusion The prevalence of myopia among primary and secondary school students in China increases significantly ; the mathematical model of the prevalence of myopia increasing with age are cubic curves ; before the puberty or early puberty period sees the most rapid increasing rate of myopia and the preventive strategies should be taken before the early puberty period.