低碳经济背景下碳排放的库兹涅茨曲线研究

The Study on EKC Curve of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China at the Background of Lower-carbon Economy

经济增长与环境质量之间的关系是环境经济学研究的热点问题。环境库兹涅茨曲线则是研究该问题较为普遍的方法。传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线的研究模式是事先假定曲线存在,然后利用固定模式的参数模型进行拟合估计,但这种做法的不足之处在于我们并不能够确定各国各地区的经济增长与环境质量存在这种关系。本文在低碳经济背景下,采用非参数模型,研究二氧化碳作为环境代理指标的碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线。研究发现:我国的经济增长与环境质量之间不存在倒"U"型曲线关系,FDI与城市化对我国的环境质量的影响统计意义显著,但经济意义不显著,而贸易、能源强度则对我国的环境具有恶化作用。

The relationship between the economic growth and environmental quality is a hot issue in the environmental economics, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve is a widespread approach. The Traditional Environmental Kuznets Curve model presupposes the existence of curve, then uses a fixed model to fit it, but the inadequacies of this approach is that we are not able to identify every country or regional has such relationship. Therefore, at the background of todayg ＂low carbon economy＂, we introduce the non-parametric model and makes use of carbon dioxide as the environment index to study this issue. The study results show that： Chinag economic growth and environment do not exist inverted ＂U＂ type curve, FDI and urbanization have a significant statistic effect and non-significant economic effect on China＇ s environmental quality, trade, energy intensity and urbanization would be harm to the environment.