火灾爆炸事故多米诺效应耦合模型研究

Study on coupled model of domino effect in fire and explosion accident

为了评估火灾爆炸事故中相邻储罐由于多米诺效应而引发二次事故的风险,提出了基于热辐射、冲击波超压以及碎片冲击等三种物理效应共同作用下的事故多米诺效应耦合分析模型。模型采用概率组合方法计算事故影响区域内目标对象发生二次事故的最可能组合及概率。研究表明,火灾爆炸事故多米诺效应的产生受到多种因素影响,其中平面布局、防火间距是影响二次事故发生的主要因素。在计算设施失效概率的过程中,考虑了热辐射、爆炸冲击波以及碎片冲击三种物理效应的耦合作用效果,采用影响系数法对二次事故的可能单元组合加以研究。最后,以一储罐区蒸气云爆炸事故为例对可能发生的二次事故进行了模拟,得到了相邻储罐二次事故的单元组合及概率。

In order to study the risk of secondary accidents of adjacent tanks caused by domino effect in fire and explosion accidents, the impact analysis model of the domino effect was investigated based on the interaction of three failure models in the form of thermal radiation, overpressurc and debris impact. The model used the probability combination method to study the maximum possible combinations and the probability of the occurrence of secondary accidents for the adjacent tanks. The results showed that fire and explosion domino phenomenon was influenced by many factors, and the distance and plane layout were the most important factors. In the process of calculating domino failure probability, the heat radiation, explosion blast and debris impact should be taken into account, and parallel probabilistic model or influence coefficient method can be used. The model established by the paper can get the best possible combination of secondary accident caused by the domino effect.