技术变革、范式转换与我国产业技术赶超

Technological Revolutions,Paradigms Shift and Catching-up in China′s Industrial Technology

技术赶超是国家经济赶超的基础,但成熟的技术轨道上并不存在赶超的机会,只有在技术变革的过程中,技术—经济范式的转换才能带来赶超的机会窗口。从长波中产业技术赶超的特征事实来看,有效的赶超除了需要取得新兴技术的突破之外,更重要的还是在范式转换过程中构建适应性的社会政治框架来消化新兴技术的潜能。本轮金融危机正在孕育新一轮技术变革,并引发了新技术—经济范式的导入,这带来了产业技术赶超的全新机会。我国要想实现有效的产业技术赶超,不但需要以发展新兴产业与成熟产业现代化为路径;而且需要基于技术变革的发展趋势,在技术、经济、制度、组织与思路等方面引入广泛的创造性实验与调整,并促使经济系统的各个部门快速做出反应。

Catching-up in technology is the foundation of catching-up in national economy,but there is no chance of catching-up in mature technological trajectory.Only in the course of technological revolution,tech-economical paradigms shift can gestate windows of opportunity of catching-up.Basing on the facts of catching-up in technology in the long-wave,an effective catching-up in technology need the development of burgeoning technology,and must construct an adaptive system in the course of paradigms shift.This financial crisis is gestating a new technological revolution,and bringing a new tech-economical paradigms shift,so there is a new opportunity of catching-up in industrial technology.To realize an effective catching-up in technology,we not only must develop burgeoning industry and reform mature industry;but also basing on the trend of this technological revolution,introduce lots of experiment and adjustment of technology、economy system、organization and so on,and accelerate economical system＇s action.