基于脱钩分析方法的耕地占用与经济发展的关系研究——以甘肃省康乐县为例

Study on the Relationship between Cultivated Land Occupation and Economic Growth Based on the Decoupling Method —Taking Kangle County of Gansu Province as an Example

基于脱钩分析方法,选取建设占用耕地量、非农GDP产值两个指标作为主要指标,并对非农GDP进行了重新界定,改进了脱钩的研究方法;采用1997—2009年的相关统计数据对甘肃省康乐县耕地占用与经济发展的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:①康乐县1999—2009年建设占用耕地与非农GDP的关系主要呈现出4种状态,即强负脱钩、弱脱钩、弱负脱钩和强脱钩;②脱钩弹性曲线总体上表现出"M"型变化,呈现出"非理想状态—畸形状态—理想状态"的周期性变化;③根据脱钩弹性曲线的波动情况可将研究期划分为3个阶段,即1999—2002年、2003—2006年、2007—2009年,各阶段脱钩状态的变化都各有原因;④研究结果及产生脱钩的原因与康乐县的实际情况相吻合,具有很强的现实意义。

Based on the decoupling method,this article has did some work on the following： re-defined the non-agriculture GDP by taking construction land occupation of cultivated land quantity and the non-agriculture GDP value as the main index,as well as improved the decoupled research methods;did empirical research in Kangle County on the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land occupation by using relevant statistical data from 1997 to 2009.The results show that： 1） There＇re four main types in the relationship between cultivated land occupied for construction purpose and non-agriculture GDP in Kangle County： negative decoupling,weak decoupling,recession decoupling and strong decoupling.2） The decoupling curve showed ＂M＂ type in general,the cyclical change vary from ＂non ideal state＂,＂deformity state＂ to ＂ideal state＂.3） According to the decoupling elastic curve,the research period can be divided into three stages,that is,19992002,20032006 and 20072009.In each stage,the decoupling curve variation has its own reason.4） Both results and factors in the charge of decoupling are consistent with the actual situation in Kangle County,so it has strong practical significance.