中国经济发展阶段及其时空格局演变特征

China's economic development stage and its patio-temporal evolution: A prefectural-level analysis

地级行政单元在中国经济发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色,是落实区域发展战略和相关政策的重要空间依托。现有研究中缺乏针对中国地级行政单元经济发展阶段及其时空格局演变的实证研究。本文在对经济发展阶段划分标准进行辨析的基础上,从全国和地级两个层面对中国经济发展的阶段性及其时空特征进行系统分析,并通过Global Moran's I指数和Getis-Ord Gi*指数探讨了中国经济发展的空间演变规律。研究发现:①总体而言,中国经济发展一直处于相对的集聚状态,自1990年到2010年由初级产品生产阶段进入工业化的中期阶段,经济发展格局呈现出"均衡—不均衡—逐步均衡"的演变特征。②中国经济发展呈现出明显的由沿海向内陆地区推进的总体趋势,中西部发展水平较高的城市主要是区域性中心城市和资源富集型城市两种类型。③中国经济发展的热点区域呈现出"北移西进"的态势,东部沿海地区空间联动发展的效应有所减弱,呈现出"南上北下"的趋势,中西部地区城市仍以单体式发展为主,区域带动效应较弱,联动发展态势不明显。④从时间趋势来看,虽然全国经济发展出现了放缓的趋势,但中西部地区的经济增速却快速提高,已经明显高于沿海地区。⑤资源富集地区是中西部经济增长的热点地区,采用人均GDP单一指标测算的部分资源富集地区的经济发展阶段存在"虚高化"的特征,资源大规模集中开发带动经济总量迅速膨胀的同时,却掩盖了背后的经济结构失调和社会发展滞后等诸多问题,应引起决策者和学术界的持续关注。

As important carriers of regional strategy and policy, prefecture-level regions have played an increasingly significant role in the development of China＇s economy. However, few studies have grasped the essence of economic development stage and spatio-temporal evolution process at a prefectural level. Thus they may lead to a biased policy and ineffective implementation. Based on Chenery＇s economic development theory, this paper identifies China＇s economic development stages at both national and prefectural levels. Both Global Moran＇s I index and Getis-Ord Gi＊ index are employed to investigate the spatial-temporal evolution of China＇s economic development from 1990 to 2010. Major conclusions can be drawn as follows： （1） China＇s economic development is generally in the state of agglomeration. It stepped into primary production stage in 1990, and middle industrialized stage in 2010, with a ＂balanced-unbalanced-gradually rebalanced＂ pattern in the process. （2） China＇s rapid economic growth experienced a spatial shift from coastal regions to inland regions. Most advanced cities in central and western China can be roughly categorized into regional hub cities and resource-dependent cities. （3） Hot-spots in China＇s economic development moved northward and westward. The interactions between cities and prefectures became weaker in eastern China, while cities and prefectures in central and western China were still on the stage of monomer development, with limited effects on the surrounding cities. （4） While the overall growth rate of China＇s economy gradually slowed down during the past two decades, the numbers of cities and prefectures in central and western China grew much faster than those in coastal areas. （5） Regions rich in resources, such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, became the new hot-spots of economic growth in recent years. For these regions, however, more attention should be paid to its unbalanced industrial structure and the lagging social development in the backdrop of the rapid economic growth driven predominantly by the exploitation of resources.