基础设施投入对服务贸易结构影响的实证研究——来自跨国面板数据的证据

An Empirical Study on Influence of Infrastructure Inputs on Services Trade Structure:Based on Cross-national Panel Data

本文基于要素禀赋理论和动态比较优势理论,将基础设施投入引致的要素积累效应纳入H.Oniki和H.Uzawa(1965)的分析框架,探讨了广义基础设施投入影响服务贸易结构的理论作用机制,并在此基础上建立动态面板模型,采用系统GMM两步法对80个不同收入水平国家及其分群组在1996-2010年的数据进行了实证分析。研究发现,交通、能源和通讯等经济性基础设施变量与服务贸易结构水平呈显著正相关;社会性基础设施变量中,研发基础设施具有正向作用,医疗、教育和环保基础设施却呈负向作用,同时研发、医疗和教育基础设施变量均有显著的滞后效应;进口贸易有利于服务贸易结构优化,而FDI和服务业发展水平作用不显著。对于不同收入水平的国家,不同基础设施投入的影响作用存在差异。

Drawing on the endowment theory and the dynamic comparative advantage theory, this paper incorporates into the analytical framework of Oniki, H. and Uzawa, H. （1965） factor accumulation effects induced by infrastructure in-puts, and makes a theoretical exploration into the influencing mechanism of gener-al infrastructure inputs on the services trade structure. On such a basis, a dynam-ic panel model combining two-step system GMM is set up to conduct empirical analyses on data of 80 nations and their subgroups at different income levels from year 1996 to 2010. It is found that economic infrastructure variables such as transportation, energy, and communication are significantly and positively corre-lated with the services trade structure; among social infrastructure variables, R＆D has a positive impact while medical care, education and environmental protection have a negative one. R＆D, medical care and education variables also take on sig-nificant lagging effects. Also found is that import facilitates the optimization of services trade structure, whereas FDI and the services trade development level are not notably influential. Last but not least, the impact of various infrastructure inputs on services trade structure differs with the diversity in income levels in different countries.