虚假促销中消费者购买决策的认知机制：基于时间压力和过度自信的实证研究

Cognitive Mechanism in Consumer Decision-making under Conditions of Deceptive Promotion: An Empirical Research Based on Time Pressure and Overconfidence

促销是利用时间压力引诱消费者作出购买决策的营销手段,而虚假促销则是商家利用促销原理设计的带有欺骗性质的促销活动。在虚假促销活动中,消费者是否作出购买决策,与消费者决策理性、时间压力感知以及是否过度自信密切相关。依据经典文献,本文将时间压力分为"个人时间约束、促销时间限制及机会成本感知"三个维度,将虚假促销决策中的过度自信分为"夸大感知利得和忽略感知风险"两个维度。在此基础上,本文通过实证调研获得的数据对所构建的虚假促销购买决策认知机制模型进行了检验和分析。数据分析结果表明,在虚假促销活动中,消费者购买决策中的时间压力与决策自信程度有着显著的正相关关系,而过度自信又对购买意愿有着显著的影响。因此,将过度自信看作虚假促销活动诱致的"热"心理状态,很好地解释了消费者上当受骗的认知机制。从各变量的具体维度来看,促销时间压力比个人时间约束更易引起过度自信,且机会成本感知更易导致夸大感知利得。此外,过度自信中的夸大感知利得比风险意识缺失对购买意愿的影响更大。

Sales promotion is an important marketing tool that uses time pressure to induce customers to make immediate purchasing decisions, while deceptive promotion is a fraudulent one that exploits the designing principles of common sales promotion. Under conditions of a deceptive promotional activity, whether a consumer makes a decision to buy or not to buy something is closely related to his or her rationality, perception of time pressure, and overconfi- dence. According to literature review, time pressure can be divided into three dimensions as personal time limit, promotion duration, and perception of opportunity costs. Meanwhile, overconfidence can be broken down into two dimensions as exaggeration of per- ceived benefits and negligence of perceived risks. Based on these analyses, statistical software is employed to analyze data collected from a consumer survey in order to testify the proposed model of consumers＇ cognitive mechanism in deceptive promotional activities as well as relevant hypotheses. The results prove that overconfidence has positive correlation with time pressure of deceptive promotion and it strongly affects the purchasing intention of deceptive promotional goods. Therefore, it can be concluded that overconfidence is a hot emotional state induced by deceptive promotion, which is capable of explaining cognitive mechanism in these purchasing conditions. From the perspective of each spe- cific dimension, it is also found that both promotion duration and perception of opportunity costs are more likely to arouse overconfidence than that of personal time limit. It is noted that promotion duration has greater influence on negligence of perceived risks than on exaggeration of perceived benefits, while the perception of opportunity costs has greater influence on exaggeration of perceived benefits than on negligence of perceived risks. In addition, both exaggeration of perceived benefits and negligence of perceived risks, these two dimensions of overconfidence enhance the purchasing intention of deceptive promotional goods, but exaggeration of perceived benefits in particular has greater influence on the purchasing intention.