中国能源发展空间的国际比较研究

An international comparative study on the scope of China’s energy development

本文提出了中国能源发展空间研究的国际比较分析方法。通过比较美国、加拿大、欧洲各国和日本等发达国家能源消费的发展历程发现,尽管达到同等发展水平,不同发达国家的人均能源消费量却差异显著,由此提出了"两类发达国家"的概念,即按能源发展方式可分为"美加模式"和"欧日模式"(后者也可细分为"欧洲模式"和"日本模式")。然后,从产业、交通、居民生活、商业和服务业4个能源终端消费部门出发,深入剖析了不同模式差异的原因。基于不同发达国家的比较分析研究和我国实际国情,对我国能源发展空间进行了分析,提出我国人均能源消耗在2010年的基础上还有不到一倍的增长空间,并对我国能源的发展提出了几点建议。

An international comparative analysis aimed at perspectives on China＇ s energy development scope is presented in this paper. By comparing the development course of the energy consumption of the United States, Canada, Europe and Japan, we find that although these countries have achieved the same level of devel- opment, they have made major differences in per capita energy consumption. Based on this, we propose the concept of “two types of developed countries”, which we describe as “America and Canada model” and “Europe and Japan model”（the latter can be further broken into the “Europe model” and the “Japan model” ）. The reasons for the consumption differences of the different models are analyzed separately in industry, transport, residential, commercial and public services end-use sectors. In conclusion, based on the comparative analysis of those developed countries and China＇ s actual conditions, the paper proposes that China＇ s growth scope of per capita energy consumption is less than her per capita energy consumption in 2010, and several suggestions for the energy development are given.