摘要
采用现有电力弹性系数法进行负荷预测时,不区分全社会用电组成,笼统地用全社会经济增长去预测电量增长。针对这一不足,提出区分全社会用电组成,将全社会用电分为生产用电和生活用电。利用相应的弹性系数去预测生产用电中的不同产业用电需求,采用时间序列自回归模型预测生活用电。将2种预测电量相加可得到全社会用电,提高了预测精度。
The existing elastic coefficient method can't distinguish compositions of the whole society electricity. The society economic growth is used to forecast the electricity growth generally. According to this shortcoming, it is suggested to distinguish the compositions of the whole society electricity, and the compositions is divided into production power and living power, The paper uses the corresponding elasticity coefficient to predict the demand of different production power, and uses Time Series Autoregressive Model to predict the demand of living power. Two kinds of predicted energy are added to get the whole society demand, and improves the forecasting accuracy.
出处
《陕西电力》
2013年第6期46-48,64,共4页
Shanxi Electric Power
关键词
弹性系数法
用电组成
经济增长
自回归模型
elastic coefficient method
electricity composition
economic growth
autoregressive model