贵州舟溪2012年6月10日泥石流灾害的气象成因

Meteorological causes of the debris flow on June 10,2012

利用加密地面自动气象站、常规MICAPS资料、每6 h一次的1°×1°NCEP再分析资料、FY-2E气象卫星云图、多普勒天气雷达回波等多源实测资料,综合分析了2012年6月10日凌晨发生在贵州省凯里市舟溪镇的泥石流灾害的气象成因。结果表明:造成这次泥石流灾害的气象触发因素是一场短时特大暴雨所致;此次局地暴雨天气过程是在高空西南气流、近地层切变线及地面辐合线的共同作用下发生的。FY气象卫星资料揭示出中β尺度对流云团是特大暴雨发生的直接影响系统,并与泥石流灾害点的位置有密切关系。多普勒天气雷达资料分析得到此次舟溪暴雨属于暖云性质的降水,并且先后受到4个雷暴单体的影响,造成了类似"列车效应"的强降水。来自孟加拉湾的暖湿空气是本次暴雨的主要水汽来源,泥石流灾害点发生在最强上升气流的东侧,大气层结不稳定是产生强对流天气的重要前提条件。

Using the data of intensified automatic surface weather observation stations（IAWS） ,conventional MICAPS , FY - 2E satellite and Doppler radar as well as NCEP reanalysis data （ 1°×1°） , this paper analyzed the meteoro- logical causes of a mudslide on 10 June 2012 which occurred in Zhouxi town of Guizhou province. The results show that the short - time heavy rainfall is the main triggering cause for this massive mudslide. The torrential rain is prin- cipally resulted from the coordination of the up - layer south - westerly jet, low - layer shear line and the surface convergence line. And the meso 13 scale convective cloud correlated with the area of mudslide where located on the east of ascending current is the direct impact system. The radar echo reflect the characteristic of warm cloud and ＂train effect＂. The warm and moist south -westerly airflow from the Bay of Bengal serve as the main water vapor source. Meanwhile,the instability layer plays an important role in the convective process.