低碳能耗结构优化模型构建及实证分析

Optimization model of low-carbon energy consumption structure and empirical analysis

为了探讨能耗结构优化的减排效应,以降低碳强度为目标,在满足经济增长、节能减排等目标的基础上,利用数学规划方法构建了能耗结构优化模型,对我国2009～2020年的能源消耗结构优化进行实证研究.结果表明:在"十二五"能耗强度目标水平下,优化能耗结构并不能实现碳强度目标,其贡献潜力为77.12%;碳强度目标的实现需要能源效率和能源结构的共同作用;我国能源消耗结构的优化前期主要表现为煤炭消耗比例的降低和电力消耗比例的大幅提高,后期表现为天然气消耗比例的大幅上升.

To effectively investigate the carbon emissions reduction effects of energy consumption structure, on the premise of meeting economic growth, saving energy and reducing carbon emission, mathematical programming methods are used to construct an optimization model of energy consumption structure, so as to conduct an empirical study on the optimization, of energy consumption structure in China in 2009-2020. Results showed： first, in the light of energy consumption intensity goal in 12th Five-Year Plan, optimization of energy consumption structure cannot reach the target of carbon intensity, the contribution potential of energy consumption structure optimization is 77.12%. Second, the realization of carbon intensity objective needs common-effect of energy efficiency and energy structure. Third, China＇s optimization of energy consumption structure is mainly represented in the declination of coal power consumption proportion and the great increase of electric power consumption proportion in the initial stage, and the sharp rising of natural gas consumption proportion in the later sta^e.