我国货币政策传导途径的实证研究

An Empirical Investigation of the Channels of Monetary Transmission

为制定切实可行的货币调控政策 ,货币当局必须了解和把握货币政策在实体经济中的传导途径。本文从实证的角度出发 ,采用协整检验和Granger因果检验方法 ,对我国货币政策传导途径进行分析研究。本文的实证结论是 :无论是在 80年代还是在 90年代 ,信用渠道都是我国货币政策的主要传导途经。这对我国货币政策中介目标的选取以及在当前形势下如何利用货币政策有效促进经济发展均具有重要的指导意义。

To make realistic monetary policies,the monetary authorities must find out the channel of monetary transmission.This paper investigates the channels of China's monetary policies by using cointegration test and Granger causality test.Our empirical analysis shows that the credit channel is the major channel of monetary transmission in the 1980s,and also in the 1990s,It means the guiding singificance for choosing intermidiate targets of monetary policies and promoting growth of economy by using monetary policies.