江苏省经济重心与能源碳排放重心路径演变分析

Movements of Economic and Carbon Emissions Gravity Centers in Jiangsu Province

本研究引入重心模型,采用1998—2008年江苏省经济和能源消费数据,计算出各年份GDP、工业产值、碳排放和人均碳排放的演变路径,从移动方向、移动距离、路径对比和空间相关性多角度阐释了经济重心和碳排放重心的动态变化和空间联系.结果显示:经济重心和碳排放重心总体向东南方向偏移,2006年后出现略微的北移迹象;11年间重心移动距离排序为:碳排放重心(32.1 km)>人均碳排放重心(29.6 km)>GDP重心(14.6 km)>工业产值重心(10.9 km);相较于经济重心而言,碳排放重心的空间位置偏向于省域的西北方向;经济重心和人均碳排放重心在空间上表现为显著正相关关系.

Using economic and energy consumption data during 1998 and 2008 of Jiangsu province, the article makes a quantitative analysis on the movements of its gravity centers of GDP, gross industrial output, total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions. The results show that, on the whole, the economic and carbon emissions gravity centers both moved southeastward, with a shift after 2006, when a slight northward movement took place. During the whole period of 11 years, the moving distance of these gravity centers is as follows： 32. 1 km for total carbon emissions, 29. 6 km for per capita carbon emissions, 14. 6 km for GDP and 10.9 km for gross industrial output. Compared to the economic gravity center, carbon emissions gravity center lies to some degree northwestward in the province, however, the two centers are very positively related to each other over space.