基于ESDA_GWR的我国体育彩票销售额及其驱动因子的空间异质性研究

Spatial Heterogeneity of Chinese Sports Lottery Sales and Driving Factors based ESDA-GWR

体育彩票在我国的体育事业、社会公共福利和公益事业等方面都发挥着巨大的作用,然而,各省的体育彩票发展并不均衡,存在较大的空间差异。通过搜集1997—2012年各省体育彩票销售额及2012年各省社会发展指标的相关数据,运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法和地理加权回归(GWR)模型,采用OpenGeoDa和ArcGIS10软件对相关数据进行处理,分析我国体育彩票销售额及其驱动因子的空间异质性。研究表明,我国31个省区体育彩票销售额具有明显的空间集聚特征,集聚程度经历了"上升—突然下降—再上升—相对稳定"的过程;除少数中部省份外,东部沿海省份仍是我国体育彩票发展最具活力的地区,区域性寡占的市场特征十分明显;构建的GWR模型拟合度较高,能够较好地解释各省体育彩票销售额空间分异情况。

Sports lottery has been playing a tremendous role in China＇s sports undertaking, social public welfare as well as public service, but it is devel oping with imbalance and big gaps among different provinces and regions. This study tried to dig into the spatial heterogeneity of China＇s Sports Lottery Sales and their driving factors by analyzing the Sports Lottery Sale amounts in different provinces between 1997 and 2012 as well as relevant provincial so cial development indexes in 2012 through exploratory special data analysis （ESDA） and geographically weighted regression （GWR） with the help of soft ware like OpenGeoDa and ArcGIS10. The results from the analysis indicated that Sports Lottery Sales in the 31 provinces and regions are characteristic of distinctive spatial agglomeration, the degree of which remains relatively stable after it has gone up first and down sharply and up again; It＇s obvious that sports lottery operates on a territory oligopolistic market with the eastern costal provinces the most flourishing and prosperous in its sales; The logistic GWR model constructed demonstrates a high value of goodness of fit and thus can explain significantly the spatial heterogeneity of the Sports Lottery Sales among different provinces and regions in China.