中国的黄金储备占比是否合理?

Is the Proportion of Chinese Gold Reserve in Chinese International Reserve Reasonable?

采用线性回归模型方法,对中国黄金储备占比的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究表明,中国黄金储备占比主要受到流通中的现金、黄金价格、原油价格、实际汇率、通货膨胀指数以及美元指数的影响;现阶段,中国现有黄金储备规模维持在原有水平较为合理,因此不建议央行增持黄金储备;中国政府应该密切关注世界经济未来走势和黄金保值增值的前景,以此来决定今后是否增持以及如何增持。

The linear regression mode is applied to empirically study the factors which may have an effect on the Chinese gold reserve. The result of the empirical test showed that the Chinese gold reserve is mainly affected by M0, the gold price, the crude oil index, the real exchange rate, CPI index and the dollar index. The scale of Chinese gold reserve is reasonable in recent years. Therefore, it is not suggested that the Central Bank raise the scale of the official gold reserve at present. The tendency of the world economic situation and prospects for the value of gold should be considered by Chinese government in the future, in that the government can decide whether and how to raise the scale of the official gold reserve.