利率市场化进程中商业银行财务稳定性研究

Study on the Influence of Commercial Bank's Financial Stability in the Process of Interest Rates Liberalization

存贷款利差是我国银行业的主要收入来源和盈利手段,随着利率市场化进程的实质推进,存贷款利差出现了减小的趋势,可能会影响银行的财务稳定性。本文利用我国16家上市银行8年的面板数据进行实证分析和稳健性检验,发现净利息差是影响我国商业银行财务稳定性的决定性因素,其中生息资产利息的影响程度大于计息负债利息。本文对中国工商银行2006-2011年的历史数据进行存贷款利率变动情况下的情景模拟分析,发现贷款利率对银行财务稳定性的影响程度更大,并且中国工商银行某些年份的财务稳定性堪忧。最后本文以贷款额的安全边际率降至10%为财务稳定性的安全临界点,找出贷款利率的定价下限。

Interest spreads is still the main source of income and means of profit in China＇s banking industry. However, with the market-oriented interest rate reform, interest spreads will definitely decrease, and the bank will be probably on the fringe of financial instability. Based on the panel data of 8 years and 16 listed banks in China, the paper finds that net interest margin is the decisive factor of the financial stability of China＇s banking industry, and the influence of the interest interest- earning assets is more than that of the interest-bearing debt interest. In the case of changing of bank interest rates and through the scenario analysis of ICBC, the paper finds that the influence of loan interest rate is more than deposit interest rate, and the financial stability of ICBC is worrying in some years. Finally, the paper sets margin of safety ratio of loan fell to 10% for the critical safety point of financial stability, and finds out the lower limit of loan interest rate.