中国贸易超调:表现、成因与对策

China's Trade Overshooting: The Phenomena, the Cause and the Countermeasures

本文将可能影响中国贸易超调的原因归纳为五类,即贸易结构、供应链国际化、经济形势、贸易政策和中国特定因素,每类指标均选取多个变量纳入计量方程中进行回归分析。经验分析结果稳健地表明,"可延迟商品"的出口比重成为中国贸易超调最重要的影响因素;此外,主要贸易伙伴从中国进口比重、主要贸易伙伴的GDP增长率,以及中国库存占GDP比重,对中国贸易超调也产生了较为重要的作用;而中国参与国际垂直专业化生产程度、出口退税因素以及游资因素对超调幅度的影响未能获得实际数据的支持。未来中国对外贸易克服超调问题,实现健康稳定发展的出路在于,一方面遵循比较优势,承接国际外包,在国际生产链条中扮演好自己的角色,另一方面,积极扩展贸易方向、有选择地接受国际先进生产方式,重视服务贸易发展,加强同贸易伙伴的协调对话,以此来减轻贸易超调的幅度。

We have, in this article, classified the causes that may influence the overshooting of China's trade(CT) into 5 cat-egories, including the trade structure, the internationalization of the supply chain, the economic situation, and the tradepolicy and China's special factors. Then, we have selected various variables in each category to make the econometri-cal analysis. The results of our analysis made by the experience have steadily indicated that the export proportion ofthe"postponable commodity"has become the most important influencing factor in the overshooting of CT, and that theproportion of the import, of the main trade partners, from China, the GDP growth rate of the main partners and China'sinventory share in GDP has also produced relatively important role in the overshooting of CT, and that, however, the im-pact of the degree of China's participation into the international vertical specification, the impact of the factor of theexport tax refund and the impact of the range of the overshooting and the impact of the factor of the factor of the float-ing capital, on the range of the overshooting, have not been supported by the actual data. In order to solve the problemof overshooting to realized the healthy and steady development, the way out is to use the comparative advantage to ac-cept international outwork and to play well China's own role in the chain of international production, on the one hand,and on the other, China should expand the trade direction, selectively accept the international advanced way of produc-tion, highlight the development of the service trade and negotiations with trade partners, in order to narrow the range ofthe trade overshooting.