气候变化对中国的影响利弊

Pros and Cons of Climate Change in China

气候变化对自然生态系统、自然资源、三次产业、社会系统及自然灾害等领域的影响包括:气候变化对自然生态系统结构和功能产生深刻影响,如东北多年冻土区植被生产力下降,而青藏高原则升高;气候变化导致华北、东北大部分地区降水减少以及许多北方河流径流量减少;由于气候变化,人们生产生活对能源的需求发生变化;气候变化导致的极端事件增加(包括频次与强度)、水资源短缺等问题对人体健康、疾病传播、重大工程等具有重要影响;气候变化背景下,热量资源的改善有助于延长农作物生育期,但极端事件增加也会造成农业生产的不稳定;气候变化不仅可通过影响农业和自然资源而间接地对第二、三产业产生影响,而且气候变化减缓措施(如碳税、碳关税、碳交易等)的采用也将对社会经济产生广泛而深刻的影响。进一步,通过分析可发现,气候变化的影响具有显著的区域差异性,而且总体上利弊共存,但弊大于利。基于此,本文提出要趋利避害,科学应对气候变化,实现"整体最优、长期受益"的有序适应目标;要强调定量适应,提出可操作性方案和可预期目标,并分析适应措施的不确定性;而且为提高我国未来综合竞争力,今后应采取更加主动的应对策略,如逐渐调整产业结构,加大减排技术研发,积极应对碳税、碳关税和碳市场对中国社会经济发展的影响等。

Climate change strongly affected the structure and functions of natural ecosystems, for example, the vegetation productivity decreased in the Northeast permafrost region due to the higher temperature and less precipitation, while in the Tibetan Plateau, the vegetation productivity increased, owing to the improved thermal resource. Climate change led to the reduced precipitation in North and Northeast China and thus the reduced surface runoff. The public energy needs were changed because of climate change, e.g. the shorter heating period in winter. Climate change profoundlyinfluenced human health, pathophoresis and major projectsby increasing extreme events, including frequency and magnitude, and causing more serious water shortage. Under the background of climate change, although the improved thermal resources can be helpful for extending the crop growth period, more extreme events may resulted in more instability in agricultural productivity. Not only did climate change indirectly affect the secondary and tertiary industry through the impacts on agriculture and natural resources, but also climate change mitigation measures, such as carbon tax, tariff and trading, had extensive and profound influences on socioeconomic system. Further analysis indicated that the impact of climate change presented significant regional differences. The impact had its pros and cons, while the advantages outweighed the disadvantages. Based on the above analysis on the impacts of climate change, we put forward suggestions on coping with climate change. Firstly, scientifically dealing with climate change needs to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages of climate change in order to achieve theorderly adaption to climate change, which is characterized with ＇ Overall best, long-term benefit＇. Secondly, quantitative adaption should attach more attention, for example, proposing operational schemes and predictable goals, applying uncertainty analysis on adaption measures. Thirdly, more active coping strategy should be taken to enhance China＇ s future comprehensive competitiveness. The strategies include but are not limited to： gradually adjusting the industrial structure, intensifying the research and development （ R ＆ D） of emission reduction technology, and actively responding to the influence of carbon tax, tariff and trading on socioeconomic development in China.